Opta has changed the ranking: France is now the new favorite for the 2026 World Cup.

Opta has changed the odds: France is now the new favorite for the World Cup in 2026. The algorithms of Opta’s statistical platform have recalculated the chances of winning the World Cup after the first round of group matches has concluded. The French team, having easily defeated Senegal 3-1, currently leads with a probability of 15.73% of winning the championship. Before the tournament started, Spain was leading. However, their zero-point win against Cape Verde significantly reduced Spain’s chances in the mathematical calculations.

The current rankings from Opta are as follows: France – 15.73%, England – 12.33% (win over Croatia 4-2), Argentina – 12.28% (defeat of Algeria 3-0), Spain – 12.08%. The supercomputer takes into account not only the final scores, but also expected goals, the intensity of pressing, the quality of the opponent, and tactical patterns. This makes the predictions more realistic and updated after each match.

Despite the lead of the “three-color team,” the gap between the top teams is minimal. The World Cup in 2026 is expected to be one of the most competitive tournaments in history. The mathematical model will continue to adjust the odds as the tournament progresses. The competition for the top prize is getting more intense.